Free Ebook for this Exceptional Euro Tournament

Has this tournament been exciting or what?! I’m writing this at the halftime of the England and Denmark semi final. Starting tomorrow Make Better Bets, the story where I bet the World Cup with an Excel model, will be available for free! I’d love to hear your thoughts and an Amazon review would be moreContinue reading “Free Ebook for this Exceptional Euro Tournament”

Make Better Bets Free for Next Two Days!

This is the story of how I made an Excel model to bet the 2018 World Cup, with lessons learned and European travel stories sprinkled in. Please enjoy and any feedback or reviews would be greatly appreciated. Make Better Bets: An Actuary’s Quest to Bet the Russian 2018 FIFA World Cup with Excel eBook:Continue reading “Make Better Bets Free for Next Two Days!”

Revamped Book Cover and Free for the Weekend!

Get the E-book for free! Here’s the synopsis: This is an actuary gone rogue story. Actuaries assess all kinds of risk and in this case it’s in the realm of sports betting. This is a look at how anyone can methodically setup a program to imitate and model future states of the world in aContinue reading “Revamped Book Cover and Free for the Weekend!”

FIFA Changed their Methodology again…

The stats that I used last time are essentially dead to me.  It’s time to adapt or die.  I will use the slightly altered FIFA rankings from the European qualifying campaigns and I’m finally going to try and collect salary data.  Salary data is tough to get for some of these lower teams so I’mContinue reading “FIFA Changed their Methodology again…”

How to Make Sense of it All

Here’s a small excerpt from The Bet is Round: I was first going to try to replicate what Syzmanski and Kuper did for Soccernomics.  I was going to see if I could figure out a regression model using country statistics including GDP/capita, population, and international appearances by country to predict goal differential.  They found thatContinue reading “How to Make Sense of it All”