This is an actuary gone rogue story. Actuaries assess all kinds of risk and in this case it’s in the realm of sports betting. This is a look at how anyone can methodically setup a program to imitate and model future states of the world in a probabilistic manner. The world is not just win-lose-tie, black or white, up or down, but more of a sliding scale or spectrum of results. Learn to think in probabilities and use that information to make better decisions. This is a dive into getting fired and being scared to developing a sports model in Microsoft Excel and using that model to bet thousands of dollars on the 2018 World Cup in Russia, with no regrets.
My Name is Jack Allweil. I grew up in a small town in Michigan. I absolutely loved playing soccer growing up and while I don't play as much these days I still love watching my beloved London based club, Arsenal.
After studying mathematics and economics at the University of Michigan I worked as an actuary for various insurers. After getting fired from one job in Charlotte, NC my head went spinning looking for new ideas.
I started reading... A lot. Next thing I know Dr. Stefan Szymanski gave me many of his sources for his fantastically written books, Soccernomics and Money and Soccer.
My journey to bet on the 2018 Russia World Cup began.
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The Bet is Round 