Euro 2020/21 is Approaching!

I wanted to make a post to show the picks before kickoff but will try to go more in depth with the improvements (at least I hope) to the modeling. If you want to read the analysis, which spurred a bunch of the new improvements, that can be found here: Make Better Bets: An Actuary’s Quest to Bet the Russian 2018 FIFA World Cup with Excel eBook: Allweil, Jack: Kindle Store

I have some general takeaways after looking at the model results vs the odds:

  • Seems like a lot of money is going into England and Belgium. England gets most of their games at home but beware that sweet 16 matchup!
  • Germany seems to be undervalued, maybe being too harshly punished for their early exit in the 2018 World Cup
  • Seems to be some good odds for exiting later in the tournament for some of the big boys

Above you can see the betting allocation for the analyzed 216 bets. And below you can see the distribution from our analysis, still about a 30% chance of losing money:

Published by byoscope

My Name is Jack Allweil. I grew up in a small town in Michigan. I absolutely loved playing soccer growing up and while I don't play as much these days I still love watching my beloved London based club, Arsenal. After studying mathematics and economics at the University of Michigan I worked as an actuary for various insurers. After getting fired from one job in Charlotte, NC my head went spinning looking for new ideas. I started reading... A lot. Next thing I know Dr. Stefan Szymanski gave me many of his sources for his fantastically written books, Soccernomics and Money and Soccer. My journey to bet on the 2018 Russia World Cup began.

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